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Why This Is Not Like 2008 Again
During the Great Recession, just over a decade ago, the financial systems the world depended on started to collapse. It created a panic that drove some large companies out of business (ex. Lehman Brothers) and many more into bankruptcy.
The financial crisis that accompanied the current pandemic caused hardship to certain industries and hurt many small businesses. However, it hasn’t rattled the world economy. It seems that a year later, things are slowly getting back to normal for many companies.
Why is there a drastic difference between 2008 and now?
In a post from RealtyTrac, they explain:
“We changed the rules. We told banks they needed more reserves and that they could no longer underwrite toxic mortgages. It turns out that regulation — properly done — can help us navigate financial minefields.”
Here are the results of that regulation, captured in a graph depicting the number of failed banks since 2007.
What was different this time?
The post mentioned above explains:
“In 2008 the government saw the foreclosure meltdown as a top-down problem and set aside $700 billion for banks under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Not all of the $700 billion was used, but the important point is that the government did not act with equal fervor to help flailing homeowners, millions of whom lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales.
This time around the government forcefully moved to help ordinary citizens. Working from the bottom-up, an estimated $5.3 trillion went to the public in 2020 through such mechanisms as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), expanded unemployment benefits, tax incentives, and help for local governments. So far this year we have the $1.9 billion American Rescue Plan with millions of $1,400 checks as well as proposals to spend trillions more on infrastructure…Bank deposits increased by nearly $2 trillion during the past year and credit card debt fell.”
Bottom Line
Many have suffered over the past year. However, the economic toll of the current recession was nowhere near the scope of the Great Recession, and it won’t result in a housing crisis.
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Housing Market Review January 2018
There are three things we should look at:
- #1 New home sales are at the highest level in a decade.
- #2 Sales of previously owned homes are at the highest level in more than a decade.
- #3 Starts of single-family homes are the strongest in a decade and applications to build such properties advanced at the fastest pace since August 2007. More than a decade.
Whether we’re looking at new home sales, existing home sales, or new construction home starts, all the numbers are greater than they have been in at least the last ten years. So we can see that 2017 finished off very strongly, and many in the industry believe 2018 is going to be a great year. There are a couple of things that we have to take a look at as we move into 2018. First, let’s take a look at mortgage rate projections.
If we look all the way to the right of the chart above you’ll see the average of all four projections. Now look at the 2018 fourth quarter forecast and we see that the projected average is over 4 1⁄2%.
Currently, interest rates are sitting just about 4%.
Will this impact the market? The chart below shows total home sales for 2017 and what each of the top industry experts is projecting for 2018.
As you can see, National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bank Association and Fannie Mae all see a dramatic increase in the number of houses sold in 2018. It’s clear to see that the experts who came up with these projections don’t seem to think that’s the market will be affected by an increase in interest rates.
Probably the most important thing we can look at as well is “What does the buyer think right now“.
We can see from the Buyer Traffic chart above (December numbers aren’t in yet) that in September, October, and November of 2017, there was more buyer traffic, more buyer activity, than at any time at all during the rest of the year. Including the spring buyer’s market (March, April, and May). So, there are more buyers out there right now shopping for houses than there was last spring.
Wrap-up
Experts are saying they believe that 2018, as long as more listing come into the market, could be a phenomenal year. As a matter of fact, Bloomberg Business said this: “America’s housing market is gearing up for a robust year ahead. Builders are more optimistic, demand is strong and lean inventory is keeping prices elevated.
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