Housing Market NewsMortgage and Home LoansWeekly Market Report March 18, 2024

Weekly Market Update: 03/15/24

Week Ending 03/15/2024

Weekly Market Update: High Inflation

Helping you navigate the market

High Inflation

Stronger than expected inflation data was negative for mortgage markets this week. A shortfall in consumer spending was a distant second in importance to investors, and mortgage rates ended the week higher. High Inflation
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely followed inflation indicators. To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors typically look at core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components. In February, Core CPI rose 0.4% from January, above the consensus forecast and 3.8% higher than a year ago.

Although the core CPI annual rate has fallen from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022, it is still far above the readings around 2.0% seen early in 2021, which is the stated target level of the Fed. One big reason is that shelter (housing) costs remained elevated and again were responsible for the largest portion of the increase. However, the CPI data measures shelter costs with a lag, and more timely indicators from other sources suggest that this component will slowly come down later in the year. Other categories with large monthly increases included airline fares, apparel, and auto insurance.

Adding to the inflation concerns, another indicator released this week which measures costs for producers also was higher than expected. The core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% from January, above the consensus forecast of just 0.2%. Due to the higher than expected inflation reports this week, expectations for a reduction in the federal funds rate have been pushed out until even later in the year. Investors now anticipate that the first rate cut will not take place until June or July.

After posting large declines in January, consumer spending picked up in February, but by less than expected. Retail sales rose 0.6% from January, below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.8% and the results for the prior month were revised lower as well. The strongest rebound in spending was seen in motor vehicles/parts, electronics, appliances, and building materials. Retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, were just 1.5% higher than a year ago, below the rate of price increases over that time frame.

Week Ahead

The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected, and investors will focus on the latest forecasts from officials for monetary policy and economic activity. For economic reports, the spotlight will be on the housing sector. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday and Existing Home Sales on Friday.
Mon 3/18 NAHB Housing
Tue 3/19 Housing Starts
Wed 3/20 Fed Meeting
Thu 3/21 Existing Home Sales
High inflation
Mortgage Rates Rose 0.20%
Dow Rose 100
NASDAQ Fell 100
Cross Country Mortgage would like to thank our partner, MBSQuoteline for their insightful information.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Housing Market NewsMortgage and Home LoansWeekly Market Report March 9, 2024

Weekly Market Update: 03/08/24

Economic Data

Weekly Market Update for Week Ending in

03/08/2024

Helping you navigate the market

Unemployment Rate Climbs

This week, the major economic data was weaker than expected, and there were no unfavorable surprises from the Fed. As a result, mortgage rates ended a little lower.
Following very strong gains in January, the economy added another 275,000 jobs in February, well above the consensus forecast of 200,000. The largest gains were seen in the healthcare, government, and restaurant/hospitality sectors. However, the results for prior months were revised lower by a massive 167,000, more than offsetting the strength this month.

The other major components of the report also revealed unexpected weakness. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest reading since January 2022. This is up from 3.4% in April 2023, which was the lowest level since 1953. Average hourly earnings were 4.3% higher than a year ago, below the consensus forecast. Fed officials carefully monitor wage growth because it generally raises future inflationary pressures.

Another major economic report released this week also fell short of expectations. Since services account for roughly 75% of economic activity in the US, investors closely watch key data on the sector from the Institute of Supply Management. The latest report revealed that the ISM national services index fell to 52.6, below the consensus forecast. Still, readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector.

In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell stuck to the same script as in other recent speeches. He continued to emphasize that future decisions on monetary policy would be determined by incoming economic data and that officials would carefully consider the risks of waiting too long to cut rates versus loosening too soon. Most investors now anticipate that the first rate cut will take place in June.

Economic Data for the Week Ahead

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy ahead of the next meeting on March 20. For economic reports, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services. Retail Sales will come out on Thursday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy. Import Prices will be released on Friday.
Economic data
Tue 3/12 CPI
Thu 3/14 Retail Sales
Thu 3/14 PPI
Fri 3/15 Import Prices
Economic Data
Mortgage Rates Fell 0.10%
Dow Fell 300
NASDAQ Rose 100
Cross Country Mortgage would like to thank our partner, MBSQuoteline for their insightful information.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Housing Market NewsMortgage and Home LoansWeekly Market Report January 26, 2024

Weekly Market Update – 01/26/2024

Week Ending 01/26/2024

Weekly Market Update

Helping you navigate the market

Inflation Eases
The major inflation data released this week was right on target. While GDP growth exceeded expectations, its impact was minor. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week with little change.
Fed officials keep a close eye on inflation, and the PCE price index is their favored indicator. In December, core PCE, which excludes food and energy to reduce short-term volatility, was up 2.9% from a year ago. This was down from an annual rate of 3.2% last month and the lowest level since March 2021. While still moving in the right direction, it remains above the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity. During the fourth quarter, U.S. GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3%, above the consensus forecast of 2.0% but down from 4.9% during the third quarter of 2023. Strength was seen in consumer and government spending, business investment, and inventory growth. Despite higher interest rates, the economy has remained surprisingly resilient and has shown few signs that it will enter a recession.

After ten consecutive hikes since early 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) held benchmark interest rates steady for the third meeting in a row as expected. The statement released after the meeting again emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will be based on incoming economic data. During the press conference, ECB President Lagarde said that any discussion of a rate cut is “premature.” Similar to the U.S. Fed, the ECB is still planning to hold rates near current levels for now to help bring down inflation.

Week ahead
The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. While no change in rates is expected, investors will look for guidance on the anticipated timing of rate cuts later in the year. For economic reports, the ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Thursday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be some of the most highly anticipated economic data of the month.
Tue 1/30 Consumer Confidence
Wed 1/31 Fed Meeting
Thu 2/1 ISM Manufacturing
Fri 2/2 Employment
Mortgage Rates Flat 0.00%
Dow Rose 200
NASDAQ Rose 150
We would like to thank our partner, MBSQuoteline for their insightful information.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Jeremy Miller

Jeremy Miller

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Housing Market News July 7, 2022

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market?

According to a recent survey, more and more Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Those concerns were validated when the Federal Reserve met and confirmed they were strongly committed to bringing down inflation. And, in order to do so, they’d use their tools and influence to slow down the economy.

All of this brings up many fears and questions around how it might affect our lives, our jobs, and business overall. And one concern many Americans have is: how will this affect the housing market? We know how economic slowdowns have impacted home prices in the past, but how could this next slowdown affect real estate and the cost of financing a home?

According to Mortgage Specialists: 

Throughout history, during a recessionary period, interest rates go up at the beginning of the recession. But in order to come out of a recession, interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy moving forward.”

Here’s the data to back that up. If you look back at each recession going all the way to the early 1980s, here’s what happened to mortgage rates during those times (see chart below):

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

As the chart shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased. Fortune.com helps explain the trend like this:

“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”

And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from it. While an economic slowdown needs to happen to help taper inflation, it hasn’t always been a bad thing for the housing market. Typically, it has meant that the cost to finance a home has gone down, and that’s a good thing. 

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Concerns of a recession are rising. As the economy slows down, history tells us this would likely mean lower mortgage rates for those looking to refinance or buy a home. While no one knows exactly what the future holds, you can make the right decision for you by working with a trusted real estate professional to get expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

Selling a Home June 15, 2022

A Majority of Consumers Say It’s a Good Time To Sell Your House

If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling your house, you’re probably looking for the best time to make your move. That means you’re likely balancing a number of factors, like your changing needs, where you’ll go when you sell, and today’s mortgage rates in order to time it just right.

According to recent data, that sweet spot could already be here. The latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) by Fannie Mae finds that 76% of consumers believe now is a good time to sell.

The graph below shows the percentage of survey respondents who say it’s a good time to sell a house. The big dip in March and April of 2020 reflects how consumer sentiment dropped at the beginning of the pandemic as uncertainty about the health crisis grew. Since then, the percentage has grown consistently as more people feel confident it’s a good time to sell.

In fact, survey respondents think it’s an even better time to sell a house today than they did in 2019, which was a strong year for the housing market. The latest survey results indicate one of the strongest peaks in seller sentiment in nearly three years (see graph below):

A Majority of Consumers Say It’s a Good Time To Sell Your House | MyKCM

What Makes Today a Good Time To Sell?

One reason so many people think it’s a good time to sell is because there are still more buyers in today’s market than there are homes for sale. That’s driving home prices up, making it a good time to sell your house.

And if you’re on the fence about whether or not to sell because you don’t know where you’ll go once you do, know that you might have more options today than in previous months. That’s because the number of homes coming onto the market has grown each month since the start of the year. When more homes come onto the market, it gives you more opportunities to find one that meets your changing needs.

A Majority of Consumers Say It’s a Good Time To Sell Your House | MyKCM

Bottom Line

While the number of homes available for sale is growing and giving you more options for your move, inventory is still low overall. That could mean it’s a great time for you to sell. If you’re ready to address your changing needs and take advantage of today’s favorable conditions, let’s connect.

Housing Market News June 15, 2022

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

If you’re following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says:

The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

Home Showings Then and Now

The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.

And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.

It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:

“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

Bottom Line

If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.

Buying a homeHousing Market News May 11, 2022

Are There More Homes Coming to the Market?

According to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), one of the top challenges buyers face in today’s housing market is finding a home that meets their needs. That’s largely because the inventory of homes for sale is so low today.

If you’re looking to buy a home, you may have noticed this yourself. But there is good news. Recent data shows more sellers are listing their houses this season, which may give you more options for your home search.

Early Signs Inventory May Be Growing

The latest data from realtor.com shows the number of listings coming onto the market, known in the industry as “new listings,” has increased since the start of the year (see graph below):

Are There More Homes Coming to the Market? | MyKCM

This indicates more sellers are listing their homes for sale each month this year. And according to realtor.com, this growth is expected to continue. Their research finds the majority of potential sellers plan to list their homes over the next six months. Realtor.com says:

“. . . markets may see a noticeable bump in the number of homes for sale as we move through spring and into summer. A majority of homeowners planning to sell this year indicated that they aim to list in the next six months, with almost 10% having already placed their properties on the market.”

Are There More Homes Coming to the Market? | MyKCM

Homes Are Still Selling Quickly

But while new listings are increasing, it’s important to know they’re also selling quickly. The latest Realtors Confidence Index from NAR shows the median days on market for recently sold homes since the beginning of the year (see chart below). The time on market has decreased month-over-month. That means homes are selling even faster than they did the previous month.

Are There More Homes Coming to the Market? | MyKCM

What That Means for You

While a low-inventory market is difficult to navigate as a buyer, there is hope. The growing number of new listings and the expectation more sellers will list their homes in the coming months is great news if you’ve had a hard time finding a home that fits your needs. Just remember, those new listings are going fast. That means you’ll want to keep your foot on the gas and be ready to act if you find a home you love this season.

Your agent can help you stay on top of the latest listings in your area so you can find the home that’s right for you and submit your strongest offer as quickly as possible.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been having a hard time finding your dream home, stick with your search. More options are coming to market and your ideal home could be one of them. Let’s connect so you can stay up to date on the latest listings in our market, so you can be ready to move fast when you find the one that’s right for you.

Buying a homeHousing Market NewsSelling a Home May 6, 2022

2022 Housing Market Forecast [INFOGRAPHIC]

2022 Housing Market Forecast [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

Buying a homeHousing Market News May 4, 2022

Things That Could Help You Win a Bidding War on a Home

With a limited number of homes for sale today and so many buyers looking to make a purchase before mortgage rates rise further, bidding wars are common. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), nationwide, homes are getting an average of 4.8 offers per sale. Here’s a look at how that breaks down state-by-state (see map below):

Things That Could Help You Win a Bidding War on a Home | MyKCM

The same report from NAR shows the average buyer made two offers before getting their third offer accepted. In this type of competitive housing market, it’s important to know what levers you can pull to help you beat the competition. While a real estate professional is your ultimate guide to presenting a strong offer, here are a few things you could consider.

Offering over Asking Price

When you think of sweetening the deal for sellers, the first thought you likely have is around the price of the home. In today’s housing market, it’s true more homes are selling for over asking price because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. You just want to make sure your offer is still within your budget and realistic for the market value in your area – that’s where a local real estate professional can help you through the process. Bankrate says:

Simply put, being willing to pay more money than other buyers is one of the best ways to get your offer accepted. You may not have to increase it by a lot — it’ll depend on the area and other factors — so look to your real estate agent for guidance.”

Things That Could Help You Win a Bidding War on a Home | MyKCM

Putting Down a Bigger Earnest Money Deposit

You could also consider putting down a larger deposit up front. An earnest money deposit is a check you write to go along with your offer. If your offer is accepted, this deposit is credited toward your home purchase. NerdWallet explains how it works:

A typical earnest money deposit is 1% to 2% of the home’s purchase price, but the amount varies by location. A higher earnest money deposit may catch a seller’s attention in a hot housing market.”

That’s because it shows the seller you’re seriously interested in their house and have already set aside money that you’re ready to put toward the purchase. Talk to a professional to see if this is something you can do in your area. 

Making a Higher Down Payment 

Another option is increasing how much of a down payment you’re going to make. The benefit of a higher down payment is you won’t have to finance as much. This helps the seller feel like there’s less risk of the deal or the financing falling through. And if other buyers put less down, it could be what helps your offer stand out from the crowd.

Non-Financial Options To Make a Strong Offer

Realtor.com points out that while increasing these financial portions of the deal can help, they’re not your only options:

. . . Price is not the only factor sellers weigh when they look at offers. The buyer’s terms and contingencies are also taken into account, as well as pre-approval letters, appraisal requirements, and the closing time the buyer is asking for.”

When it’s time to make an offer, partner with a trusted professional. They have insight into what sellers are looking for in your local market and can give you expert advice on what levers you may or may not want to pull when it’s time to write an offer.

From a non-financial perspective, this can include things like flexible move-in dates or minimal contingencies (conditions you set that the seller must meet for the purchase to be finalized). For example, you could make an offer that’s not contingent on the sale of your current home. Just remember, there are certain contingencies you don’t want to forego, like your home inspection. Ultimately, the options you have can vary state-to-state, so it’s best to lean on an expert real estate professional for guidance.

Bottom Line

In today’s hot housing market, you need a partner who can serve as your guide, especially when it comes to making a strong offer. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource and coach on how to make the strongest offer possible for your specific situation.

Selling a Home April 14, 2022

Why a Real Estate Professional Is Key When Selling Your House

 

With today’s real estate market moving as fast as it is, working with a real estate professional is more essential than ever. They have the skills, experience, and expertise it takes to navigate the highly detailed and involved process of selling a home. That may be why the percentage of people who list their houses on their own, known as a FSBO or For Sale By Owner, has reached its lowest point since 1985 (see graph below):

Why a Real Estate Professional Is Key When Selling Your House | MyKCM

Here are five reasons why selling with a real estate professional makes more sense, even in today’s hot market:

1. They Know What Buyers Want To See

Before you decide which projects and repairs to take on, connect with a real estate professional. They have first-hand experience with today’s buyers, what they expect, and what you need to do to make sure your house shows well.

If you don’t lean on their expertise, you may spend your time and money on something that isn’t essential. That’s because, in today’s low-inventory market, buyers are willing to take on more of the renovation work themselves. A survey from Freddie Mac finds that:

“. . . nearly two-in-five potential homebuyers would consider purchasing a home requiring renovations.” 

A professional can help you decide what you need to tackle. It’s not canned advice you could find online – it’s recommendations specific to your house and your area.

2. They Help Maximize Your Buyer Pool

Today, the average home is getting 4.8 offers per sale according to recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and that competition is pushing prices up. While that’s promising for you as a seller, it’s important to understand your agent’s role in bringing buyers in.

Real estate professionals have an assortment of tools at their disposal, such as social media followers, agency resources, and the MLS to ensure your house is viewed by the most buyers. According to realtor.com:

Only licensed real estate agents can list homes on the MLS, which is a one-stop online shop of sorts for getting a house seen by thousands of agents and home buyers. . . . This is certainly one of many good reasons why the majority of home sellers decide to employ the services of a listing agent rather than going it alone.”

Without access to these tools, your buyer pool is limited. And you want more buyers to view your house since buyer competition can drive your final sales price higher.

3. They Understand the Fine Print

Today, more disclosures and regulations are mandatory when selling a house. That means the number of legal documents you’ll need to juggle is growing. That’s why Investopedia says:

One of the biggest risks of FSBO is not having the experience or expertise to navigate all of the legal and regulatory requirements that come with selling a home.”

A real estate professional knows exactly what needs to happen, what all the paperwork means, and how to work through it efficiently. They’ll help you review the documents and avoid any costly missteps that could occur if you try to handle them on your own.

4. They’re Trained Negotiators

If you sell without a professional, you’ll also be solely responsible for all the negotiations. That means you’ll have to coordinate with:

  • The buyer, who wants the best deal possible
  • The buyer’s agent, who will use their expertise to advocate for the buyer
  • The inspection company, which works for the buyer and will almost always find concerns with the house
  • The appraiser, who assesses the property’s value to protect the lender

Instead of going toe-to-toe with all these parties alone, lean on an expert. They’ll know what levers to pull, how to address everyone’s concerns, and when you may want to get a second opinion.

5. They Know How To Set the Right Price for Your House

If you sell your house on your own, you may over or undershoot your asking price. That could mean you’ll leave money on the table because you priced it too low or your house will sit on the market because you priced it too high. Pricing a house requires expertise. Investopedia explains it like this:

. . . There is no easy or universal way to determine market value for real estate.

Real estate professionals know the ins and outs of how to price your house accurately and competitively. To do so, they compare your house to recently sold homes in your area and factor in the current condition of your house. These factors are key to making sure it’s priced to move quickly while still getting you the highest possible final sale price.

Why a Real Estate Professional Is Key When Selling Your House | MyKCM

Bottom Line

There’s a lot that goes into selling your house. Instead of tackling it alone, let’s connect so you have an expert on your side throughout the entire process.