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Weekly Market Update: 03/15/24
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| Week Ending 03/15/2024
Weekly Market Update: High Inflation Helping you navigate the market |
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High Inflation |
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| The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely followed inflation indicators. To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors typically look at core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components. In February, Core CPI rose 0.4% from January, above the consensus forecast and 3.8% higher than a year ago.
Although the core CPI annual rate has fallen from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022, it is still far above the readings around 2.0% seen early in 2021, which is the stated target level of the Fed. One big reason is that shelter (housing) costs remained elevated and again were responsible for the largest portion of the increase. However, the CPI data measures shelter costs with a lag, and more timely indicators from other sources suggest that this component will slowly come down later in the year. Other categories with large monthly increases included airline fares, apparel, and auto insurance. Adding to the inflation concerns, another indicator released this week which measures costs for producers also was higher than expected. The core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% from January, above the consensus forecast of just 0.2%. Due to the higher than expected inflation reports this week, expectations for a reduction in the federal funds rate have been pushed out until even later in the year. Investors now anticipate that the first rate cut will not take place until June or July. After posting large declines in January, consumer spending picked up in February, but by less than expected. Retail sales rose 0.6% from January, below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.8% and the results for the prior month were revised lower as well. The strongest rebound in spending was seen in motor vehicles/parts, electronics, appliances, and building materials. Retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, were just 1.5% higher than a year ago, below the rate of price increases over that time frame. |
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Week Ahead |
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| The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected, and investors will focus on the latest forecasts from officials for monetary policy and economic activity. For economic reports, the spotlight will be on the housing sector. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday and Existing Home Sales on Friday. | ||||||||||||
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| Cross Country Mortgage would like to thank our partner, MBSQuoteline for their insightful information.
All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
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Weekly Market Update: 03/08/24
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Weekly Market Update – 01/26/2024
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Jimmy Cosenza is now a Licensed Real Estate Broker
Congratulations to James “Jimmy” Cosenza on becoming a Licensed Real Estate Broker.
Embarking on the journey to becoming a licensed real estate broker is no small feat—it demands extensive knowledge and unwavering hard work, an accomplishment achieved by a select few. For Jimmy Cosenza, an agent dedicated to becoming one of the best in the business, the path to becoming a broker was not just a professional milestone but a personal commitment to excellence.
Elevating Client Experiences
Jimmy Cosenza has long harbored a genuine interest in real estate. His passion and intricate local market knowledge uniquely position him to provide clients with a competitive edge. Whether assisting first-time homebuyers, helping sellers maximize property value, or guiding investors toward profitable opportunities, Jimmy’s dedication to excellence is unwavering.
Jimmy has previously earned certifications as a Real Estate Negotiator and obtained his Commercial and Investment Real Estate designation. Now, with the added responsibilities and capabilities of a broker’s license, he offers an even more comprehensive and strategic approach to real estate transactions. Clients can expect expert guidance, innovative solutions, and a level of service that reflects Jimmy’s continuous pursuit of excellence.
Looking to the Future
As Jimmy embraces this new chapter, his focus remains on the future. His commitment to self-improvement and genuine passion for real estate ensure that clients will continue to benefit from the highest service standards. Whether stepping into your first home, navigating the market as a seller, or seeking opportunities as an investor, Jimmy Cosenza is ready to help you navigate every aspect of the ever-changing real estate market.
Congratulations, Jimmy! Your unwavering dedication and hard work have led you to this well-deserved achievement as a licensed broker. All of us here at BHGRE Green Team wish you continued success as you embark on this new chapter of your real estate journey.
Celebrating BHGRE Green Team’s Goshen Office!
Celebrating the Opening of a New Office in Goshen, NY
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Green Team celebrated the opening of their new office in Goshen, NY on April 26th, with a ribbon-cutting ceremony. The event marked an important milestone for the brokerage, which has been serving the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ areas for the past 18 years.
Continued Growth and Expansion
Founded with a vision to provide exceptional service to their clients, Green Team has grown over the years, with the opening of their first office in Warwick, followed by the Vernon office, their affiliation with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, and now the opening of their third office in Goshen, NY. The success of the brokerage can be attributed to the dedication and hard work of their team, who have built a reputation as a trusted brokerage in the region.
A Hotspot for Productivity and Collaboration
The new office in Goshen is set to be a hotspot for Green Team’s agents, providing a comfortable and functional workspace. The spacious conference room and natural light will undoubtedly create an ideal environment for productive meetings and collaboration. Additionally, the team has access to a kitchenette and a cozy lounge for well-deserved breaks. Located next to an ice cream shop, the new space is the perfect place for the team to thrive and grow.
A Grand Celebration and Inspiring Speeches
The ribbon-cutting ceremony was a grand success, with a fantastic turnout from the team and the community. Attendees enjoyed delicious refreshments and good company while celebrating BHGRE Green Team’s new office.
The brokerage’s President, Vikki Garby, and CEO, Geoff Green, also gave speeches, expressing their excitement about the new office and their vision for the future of the brokerage. According to Vikki,
“We are nine months into our new brand and this is the first of hopefully many new offices to come. Growth is our mission right now and thank you for being a part of it. Thank you for supporting us and thank you for being here to share this celebration with us. We’re excited to be in Goshen, the center of the county, so we can grow our business naturally.”
Geoff also took the opportunity to recount his personal experiences in Goshen and the factors that influenced his decision to expand the brokerage in this vibrant community.
“My father, Joe Green, operated here for many years. In fact, when I first became a Realtor I worked with him out of his office at 255 Greenwich Ave, the old, white, hospital building, which he was there for many years; Krissy (Many) actually worked with my father as well. I started my career in real estate here (in Goshen) in 2005 and then I opened up the Green Team Home Selling System in Warwick New York. I didn’t think it would take me 18 years to get back to Goshen but all good things, in due time and we’re here and we’re very happy to be here.”
Community Support and Congratulations
Additionally, Green Team had many people come out to congratulate them and expressed their gratitude for the brokerage’s contribution to the community. This included Molly O’Donnell, the Mayor of Goshen, George Lyons from the Town of Goshen, as well as the Goshen Chamber of Commerce, and finally Evelyn from the office of Assemblyman Brian Maher.
The new office in Goshen is a testament to BHGRE Green Team’s commitment to providing their clients with the best service possible. With the expanded space and resources, the team will be better equipped to serve their community and continue to build on their success. Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Green Team is excited to see what the future holds for their brokerage and is grateful for the continued support of their team and community.
Meet Renee Williams
Renée Williams is bringing her expertise to Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Green Team!
Renée began her career as a political analyst in London’s Parliament. Following that she spent nearly a decade in Private Equity as a Financial Analyst. She worked in Midtown, Manhattan, at a global real estate-oriented merchant bank, asset management, and investment company. This company was the industry leader in distressed and value-focused real estate investing. This position earned her unrivaled experience across the real estate industry.
At the end of 2019, Renée relinquished her role at C-III Capital Partners to devote more time to social impact matters. Following this, she became a part of a minority-led, technology and social impact company in SoHo, New York. Providing top millennial, corporate professionals access to philanthropic, board leadership opportunities within well-known nonprofits and foundations. While a part of this company Renée led Corporate Relations, Diversity Training, and Partnership Engagement.
An expert in her field
Renée now works as a licensed real estate advisor. With extensive experience across mixed-use commercial and residential real estate. Additionally, she has firsthand property development and interior design experience. Thanks to her nearly 10-year career in private equity investment real estate she has lots to bring to the table as a real estate advisor.
“I enjoy all the different aspects of real estate and it doesn’t feel like work.” Say’s Renée when asked about her experience as an agent.
Additionally Renée is a Political Science Graduate of Boston University and Foreign Language Studies at London School of Economics. She is also an active member of the prestigious Alumni Society. This elite network is composed of senior-level Latinx leaders who graduated from the country’s top universities.
Making a house into a home
Four years ago Renée and her husband made the decision to leave Brooklyn and to relocate to the Hudson Valley. While house hunting in Greenwood Lake, they found a hidden gem in the form of a small lakefront bungalow. This home had recently gone into foreclosure and was in desperate need of some TLC. Thankfully Renée and her husband had a vision and were ready to make it a reality. After some hard work, they had completely transformed this property. They were now proud owners of an idyllic, three-story, contemporary-modern, designer lakefront home.
Renée’s dedication to her community
Now Renée is a proud member of the Warwick Valley Rotary Club and recent graduate of Leadership Orange Class of 2022. She is happy to go above and beyond for her community and serves monthly at the Greenwood Lake Food Pantry. Furthermore, she is honored to sit as the Chairwoman of the Rumshock Veterans Foundation.
As a former nationally ranked Rhythmic Gymnast and New England Patriots Cheerleader, Renée enjoys an active life. She can often be found on new adventures and traveling with her husband and two young children.
A new team to call her own
When it came time for Renée to leave her previous brokerage she wanted to find a group that would help her achieve her goals. When she met with us at Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Green Team she could tell she found her new “home”. With our entire team ready to support her every step of the way she was ready to begin her newest adventure.
When asked why she picked Green Team she said: ” I chose to make a move because I feel that at BHGRE Green Team I would receive support. I also knew that they would truly focus on my success and help me to achieve my goals. That kind of support and personal touch is difficult to find in this industry.”.”
We are so happy to welcome Renée to our team and can’t wait to see all her future accomplishments.
What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market?
According to a recent survey, more and more Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Those concerns were validated when the Federal Reserve met and confirmed they were strongly committed to bringing down inflation. And, in order to do so, they’d use their tools and influence to slow down the economy.
All of this brings up many fears and questions around how it might affect our lives, our jobs, and business overall. And one concern many Americans have is: how will this affect the housing market? We know how economic slowdowns have impacted home prices in the past, but how could this next slowdown affect real estate and the cost of financing a home?
According to Mortgage Specialists:
“Throughout history, during a recessionary period, interest rates go up at the beginning of the recession. But in order to come out of a recession, interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy moving forward.”
Here’s the data to back that up. If you look back at each recession going all the way to the early 1980s, here’s what happened to mortgage rates during those times (see chart below):
As the chart shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased. Fortune.com helps explain the trend like this:
“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”
And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from it. While an economic slowdown needs to happen to help taper inflation, it hasn’t always been a bad thing for the housing market. Typically, it has meant that the cost to finance a home has gone down, and that’s a good thing.
Bottom Line
Concerns of a recession are rising. As the economy slows down, history tells us this would likely mean lower mortgage rates for those looking to refinance or buy a home. While no one knows exactly what the future holds, you can make the right decision for you by working with a trusted real estate professional to get expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.
Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation
Experts in the real estate industry use a number of terms when they talk about what’s happening with home prices. And some of those words sound a bit similar but mean very different things. To help clarify what’s happening with home prices and where experts say they’re going, here’s a look at a few terms you may hear:
- Appreciation is when home prices increase.
- Depreciation is when home prices decrease.
- Deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower pace.
Where Home Prices Have Been in Recent Years
For starters, you’ve probably heard home prices have skyrocketed over the past two years, but homes were actually appreciating long before that. You might be surprised to learn that home prices have climbed for 122 consecutive months (see graph below):
As the graph shows, houses have gained value consistently over the past 10 consecutive years. But since 2020, the increase has been more dramatic as home price growth accelerated.
So why did home prices climb so much? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was high and supply was low.
Where Experts Say Home Prices Are Going
While this is helpful context, if you’re a buyer or seller in today’s market, you probably want to know what’s going to happen with home prices moving forward. Will they continue that same growth path or will home prices fall?
Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been. The graph below shows home price forecasts from seven industry leaders. None are calling for prices to fall (see graph below):
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, identifies a key reason why home prices won’t depreciate or drop:
“In today’s housing market, demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which is keeping the pressure on house prices, so don’t expect house prices to decline.”
And although housing supply is starting to tick up, it’s not enough to make home prices decline because there’s still a gap between the number of homes available for sale and the volume of buyers looking to make a purchase.
Terry Loebs, Founder of the research firm Pulsenomics, notes that most real estate experts and economists anticipate home prices will continue rising. As he puts it:
“With home values at record-high levels and a vast majority of experts projecting additional price increases this year and beyond, home prices and expectations remain buoyant.”
Bottom Line
Experts forecast price deceleration, not depreciation. That means home prices will continue to rise, just at a slower pace. Let’s connect so you can get the full picture of what’s happening with home prices in our local market and to discuss your buying and selling goals.
A Majority of Consumers Say It’s a Good Time To Sell Your House
If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling your house, you’re probably looking for the best time to make your move. That means you’re likely balancing a number of factors, like your changing needs, where you’ll go when you sell, and today’s mortgage rates in order to time it just right.
According to recent data, that sweet spot could already be here. The latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) by Fannie Mae finds that 76% of consumers believe now is a good time to sell.
The graph below shows the percentage of survey respondents who say it’s a good time to sell a house. The big dip in March and April of 2020 reflects how consumer sentiment dropped at the beginning of the pandemic as uncertainty about the health crisis grew. Since then, the percentage has grown consistently as more people feel confident it’s a good time to sell.
In fact, survey respondents think it’s an even better time to sell a house today than they did in 2019, which was a strong year for the housing market. The latest survey results indicate one of the strongest peaks in seller sentiment in nearly three years (see graph below):
What Makes Today a Good Time To Sell?
One reason so many people think it’s a good time to sell is because there are still more buyers in today’s market than there are homes for sale. That’s driving home prices up, making it a good time to sell your house.
And if you’re on the fence about whether or not to sell because you don’t know where you’ll go once you do, know that you might have more options today than in previous months. That’s because the number of homes coming onto the market has grown each month since the start of the year. When more homes come onto the market, it gives you more opportunities to find one that meets your changing needs.
Bottom Line
While the number of homes available for sale is growing and giving you more options for your move, inventory is still low overall. That could mean it’s a great time for you to sell. If you’re ready to address your changing needs and take advantage of today’s favorable conditions, let’s connect.
Is the Housing Market Correcting?
If you’re following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.
The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.
This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says:
“The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”
Home Showings Then and Now
The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):
The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.
And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.
Existing Home Sales Then and Now
Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):
Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.
It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:
“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”
Bottom Line
If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.
